SERIES PREVIEW
Astros @ Mariners
July 15-17, 2016
Back from the break. Trying to force myself to write. It’s hard when I shot my wad with all my remotely funny ideas in the first couple months of the season, but I need to get back in the habit. Previews may be a little more utilitarian for the next little while, so adjust expectations accordingly.
Would you believe that, through 89 games, the Astros are only one game worse than the 2015 squad? Of course, at this point last year they weren’t several games behind the division leader but it nevertheless offers some perspective. As bleak as things looked a couple months ago, the team is positioned well for a run at either the wild card or a Rangers team that is ripe for some reversion to the mean.
Now, though, we turn our attention to the Mariners. After being as many as 10 games over .500 in late May, June and July weren’t kind to the M’s and they sit at just one game over .500 and three games behind the Astros. Houston already more or less single-handedly buried the Halos, so it would be particularly nice to pad a bigger lead in second place.
Friday, July 15 – 9:10pm CDT
Doug Fister (8-6, 3.55) vs. James Paxton (2-3, 3.91)
Fister looked like he was going to stumble into the All-Star break, turning in two of his worst starts of the year against the Royals and White Sox. He followed that up with the effective eight innings he pitched against the A’s to open the last series before the break. That didn’t stop him from taking a loss, but what can you do. Fister has been an excellent second-half pitcher in recent years; since 2013 his 2.92 ERA after the break is almost a full run lower than his first half numbers. He has thrown two quality starts against the Mariners this year with a 1-1 record in those games.
Paxton has had a few cups of coffee in the bigs and wasn’t on the Mariners 25-man the last time they played the Astros. After putting up a 3.97 ERA in the minors, he got his first MLB start of the year on June 1. While inconsistent, he has been fairly effective overall, including allowing two runs over eight innings against the Royals in his last start. The Astros have not seen him yet this year, but last year he took a no-decision for seven innings of two-run ball.
Saturday, July 16 – 3:10pm CDT
Lance McCullers (4-3, 3.79) vs. Hisashi Iwakuma (9-6, 4.25)
McCullers accounted for the other loss in the A’s series, lasting only four innings while giving up three runs. His July 4 start against the M’s was arguably his best start of the year so far: seven innings, five hits, one walk, and 10 K’s.
Here’s an interesting stat for you: Iwakuma has only three no-decisions on the year, and hasn’t had one since the game after the Astros handed him a loss in early May. He’s 8-2 since then despite his ERA hovering solidly in the low/mid 4’s. He’s not blowing hitters away but he’s also not getting lit up either; he’s basically good for about six innings and 3-4 runs.
Sunday, July 17 – 3:10pm CDT
Collin McHugh (5-6, 4.50) vs. TBD
McHugh has been doing some work since his 4th inning exit in Arlington in mid-June when he had a 5.20 ERA, and has only allowed more than two earned runs once since then. He’s 2-0 against the M’s already this year, although his slot in the rotation didn’t come around against them a couple weeks ago.
TBD took a tough-luck no decision in his last start before the break, but to his credit, he has a track record of being very unpredictable. Advantage Mariners.